Posts Tagged ‘harley-davidson’

Don’t Look for Big Improvements in 2010

January 7, 2010

Personal, Business Bankruptcies Increase

Despite the Increasingly upbeat talk from Washington, I don’t see turnaround in 2010. And neither do a group of economists surveyed in January by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) newspaper. The consensus: The U.S. economy will perform as poorly this decade as it did during the last one which marked the worst performance since the 1930s. The recovery seen by some in the last half of 2009 was driven in large part by government stimulus programs, which will be cut back this year. And as cautious Americans are saving more, they’re spending less on big ticket toys such as motorcycles.

“It’s easy to be dismal about the U.S. economy,” said one economist, whose outlook was seconded by another: “We’re not likely to have robust growth anytime soon.” The one bright spot cited by several economists was strength in places such as China and India, which could stimulate U.S. exports. Unfortunately, I don’t see that helping the U.S. powersports industry much, expect for OEMs like Harley-Davidson and Polaris, which have made moves in both those countries. BRP also could stand to benefit from growth outside the U.S. because of its strong international base.

The turbulence that began in the powersports industry in 2008 continued last year and will drag on through 2010, I believe. The same problems that existed last year— lack of sufficient consumer and business credit, weakened consumer confidence, a languishing housing market, lack of any meaningful new powersports products, excessive non-current inventory at the dealer level, and increased fumbling by the federal government— will continue in 2010, dampening any hope of a substantial recovery in our industry this year.

In a nutshell, I see more of the same lackluster performance for our industry in 2010 that we saw last year, and I don’t look for any real improvement in the problems that plague consumers and small businesses until 2011 or perhaps 4Q 2010, at best.

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Investors In Powersports Stocks Enjoyed 2009

December 31, 2009

Harley, Polaris, Arctic Cat Post Hefty Gains

Investors who placed bets on the powersports industry last year at this time— and held steady for the ride through the year— have reason to celebrate tonight. I checked the performance of three of the leading powersports stocks this year—Harley-Davidson (HOG), Polaris Industries (PII), and Arctic Cat (ACAT) and each of them outperformed the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) by a wide margin in two cases and matching it in the last one.

It wasn’t a smooth ride, however, and it took a firm hand to stay in the game through the sharp downtown in the first quarter.  For example, while the Dow lost 13% in value during the first two months of 2008, Polaris lost 25%, Harley  dropped 21%, and Arctic Cat slipped 20%.

For the year, though, the Dow climbed 1,772 points from 8,776 on Dec. 31, 2008, to 10,548 at the close yesterday. That’s a 20% jump. During the last 52 weeks, the Dow ranged from a low of 6,440 to a high of 10,605.

Polaris, the Minneapolis-based manufacturer of ATVs, UTVs, motorcycles, snowmobiles and electric vehicles, posted the biggest dollar gain during the last year of the three companies I looked at. Polaris common moved from $28.65 on Dec. 31, 2008, to $43 at the close yesterday. That’s a gain of $14.35, or 50.1% over the year. Its 52-week performance ranged from $14.53 to a high of $49.74.

If you would have purchased 1,000 shares of Polaris common stock one year ago, your investment would have gained $28,650, not considering quarterly dividends nor any sales commissions. Now, wouldn’t that provide a nice party tonight.

Securities analysts who follow the Polaris stock like the management team lead by new CEO Scott Wine, and Bennett Morgan, president and COO, and a long-time Polaris executive. When talking about Polaris, investors also talk about its ability to quickly bring new products to market, its efficient operations that emphasize cost controls, and its growing ability to control inventories at the dealer level through its Max Velocity Program (MVP) which allows dealers increased ordering flexibility.

Harley-Davidson gained $8.53, or 50.3%, climbing from $16.97 at the close on Dec. 31, 2008, to $25.50 at yesterday’s close. Harley investors had perhaps the toughest time waiting calmly for gains on the HOG stock as the company reworked its operations in several major steps.

One move with immediate and long-term implications was  the new contract it won with workers at its York, PA, plant that  permits the company to cut loose nearly half the 2,000 employee York work force and move ahead with major physical improvements in the plant. The plant modernization will be aided by a stimulus package from the state of Pennsylvania. Harley said at one point that it was considering relocating the operation to Kentucky.

In its second big reorganizational move, Harley dumped its MVAgusta operation and it closed its Buell sport bike business.

During the 2009 52-week period, Harley stock ranged from a low of $7.99 to a high of $30.00

Arctic Cat common stock is played at a much lower level than either Polaris or Harley, but it, too, posted a nice gain of 20% during the period Dec. 31,  2008, to Dec. 30, 2009. It climbed $4.16 for the year, moving from $4.79 in December 2008 to $8.95 yesterday.

Cat had a tough year, partly because of its dependence on snowmobiles and partly because of the loss of Gander Mountain, its high visibility outdoors retail chain based in Minneapolis. Gander had been carrying Arctic’s ATV and SXS lineup in its major stores. Arctic stock ranged from a low of $2.40 to a high of $9.27 during the last 52 weeks.

Okay, so now you’re probably waiting for my forecast on the performance of these stocks in 2010. Sorry, I don’t have one. After reporting on publicly traded stock for more than 40 years, I’ve come up with one basic rule: Stock market performance doesn’t always reflect corporate performance, especially when you try to tie it to a specific quarter or other reporting period. I don’t have a clue how these three stocks, or the Dow, for that matter, might perform over the next four quarters. And if I did know,  I wouldn’t give that information away; I would charge a lot of money for it. Isn’t that what investment advisors do?

Happy New Year and good luck with your investment decisions. I hope your powersports stocks perform well for you in 2010 as these three stocks did in 2009. JD

Contact me with news tips and story ideas at
976/893-6876 or joe@powersportsupdate.com

Research Shows Changing Dealer Networks

December 22, 2009

There’s been a lot of talk this year about changes in the number and types of franchised dealers operating in the United States and Canada, but there’s been precious little data to back up the talk. Until now.

I’ve been going over some very interesting research developed by Don Musick and his company, Genesys Technology Solutions (GenesysTech). The data collected by Musick shows that the major OEMs lost dealers last year while the non-traditional manufacturers — basically Chinese and Taiwanese and other non-MIC suppliers — picked up ground.

It’s like the frog dropped into a pot of water that gradually heats up to boiling, says Musick. The majors don’t recognize that the Chinese dealers are surrounding them with experienced retailers and are getting ready to eat their lunch.

Don Musick

I’ve traveled to China and seen the potential of Chinese factories, and I realize that most of them have a lot of problems as far as succeeding in this market, But, still, Musick makes a pretty strong statement, one that’s worth considering when we talk about the changing dealer network and what it might look like in 2010 and 2011.

Musick founded GenesysTech in 2004 and began collecting dealer information in powersports, auto and a number of other industries. There’s nothing magic about how Musick comes up with his numbers; it’s just a lot of hard work and computer analysis.

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Backflip on an XR1200? Let’s See This Done on a Road King.

December 7, 2009

Because we’ll never have video of me flipping anything but the bird, here’s a link to Australia’s Kain Saul backflipping an XR1200. Saul makes it so smooth and buttery looking, I may just try this in the backyard on my Thruxton. Now that I see this is out and about, there’s also news that American Chuck Carothers pulled off this same trick a day later in Prague. Really nice work.

Harley To Restructure York Operations

December 3, 2009

New Labor Agreement Reached

Harley-Davidson, Inc. is going to restructure its motorcycle operations in York, Pa., now that it has reached an agreement with the union there. The seven-year labor agreement by company employees at York, this week was followed by the decision of Harley’s  board of directors okaying the restructuring plan and related funding.

The new union pact paves the way for Harley’s previously stated goal of cutting nearly half of the 2,000 non-management jobs at the plant. The company expects to employ about 1,000 full-time and “casual” workers at the plant. The operation will also employ about 150 salaried employees, compared to about 270 today. The staff cuts and other concessions were necessary to keep the company viable, said one analyst.

The new long-term agreement keeps Harley and its well-paying jobs in York. The company had been considering pulling out of York and relocating the operations to a new facility in Kentucky.

“A restructured York operation will enable the plant to be competitive and sustainable for the future, and the new labor agreement is critical to making that happen,” said Keith Wandell, president and CEO of Harley-Davidson, Inc., in announcing the company’s plans.

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Last in Line: The Final Buell Rolls out of East Troy

November 12, 2009

The last Buell

Just got this pic and paragraph from the PR flacks at Harley-Davidson. Strange that they’d wait two weeks to send it out, but at least they’re recognizing the moment. First the PR bit and then a comment.

Last Buell Motorcycle Built

On October 30, a Buell Lightning XB12Scg rolled off the company’s East Troy, Wis. assembly line, the last of the 136,923 motorcycles built in the company’s 26 years of operation. Parent Harley-Davidson announced on October 15 that the Buell lineup of motorcycles would be discontinued effective December 18, 2009. Buell motorcycles will continue to be sold through existing dealers until inventory is depleted.

I feel fortunate to have had the chance to ride a handful of Buells. The XB12s is probably on my Top 5 favorite motorcycles list  (I’d also put the Ulysses on there too, but I rode the first model year version that had a bad steering lock issues) as it was a thoroughly fun bike to ride. Wicked and torquey and rumbly … there was no mistaking that you were sitting on a Harley. I also truly appreciate Erik Buell and visionary people like him. The motorcycle industry is filled with the most clever, entrepreneurial and just plain smart people that I’ve ever met or been around. They are tinkerers and engineers and machinists and admen and marketeers and sales people, all full of swagger and spark. Erik is at the top of that list. 

So, yeah, this picture and the accompanying paragraph leave me a bit sad.

Blogs Abuzz About H-D’s Buell Decision

October 15, 2009

Buell_logoHarley-Davidson has carved a lot of pork, and jobs, during the past year, and now the move to end production of the Buell line and sell off its recently-purchased MV Agusta business has people buzzing anew about the way the Motor Co. has chosen to streamline its operation.

Here are some thoughts gleamed from a surf through some of the social networking sites:

Gutted that Harley has pulled the plug on Buell Motorcycles. After all of Erik’s struggles and hard work developing improved product, he deserves better than that. – Kevin

No matter what you think of HD or Buell product, you have to respect Erik Buell’s independent and creative thinking. Sorry to see you go Buell. – Glenn

Victims of Hope and Change? – Robert

I feel for all those who have been laid off … but I keep thinking there is more to come from Buell. – Greg

Buell gone; MV on the block!? Whats next? Price drops on Fatboys and baggers? – Jeffery

Why didn’t they dump their latest European acquisition instead of wiping out more American jobs? As an American manufacturer, it sickens me to see HD become just another company making a profit at any cost. – Chris

A day of mourning for American Sportbikers … regardless of what you ride. Buell, you will be greatly missed! – Brittany

I am truly bummed about Buell going under. I wasn’t a die hard Buell fan but it was nice to see a company like that succeed. – Aaron

It seems that we have let another American Motorcycle Company go by the way side my friends, and what a shame! – Patrick

Learn more about H-D’s decision by clicking HERE.

Harley to Dump Buell, MV Agusta — 9 mos. Earnings Down 71%

October 15, 2009

Harley-Davidson announced its third-quarter results today and BOY do things look ugly.hd

earnings down 71 percent

U.S. retail motorcycle sales down 24.3 percent

To discontinue production of Buell motorcycles.

Remaining inventories of Buell motorcycles, accessories and apparel, while they last, will continue to be sold through authorized dealerships. Warranty coverage will continue as normal for Buell motorcycles and the Company will provide replacement parts and service through dealerships.

Company to immediately begin plans to sell MV Agusta.

More to come later today on www.dealernews.com from Guido Ebert, who is sitting in on third quarter conference call.

Erpelding, Europe’s Keeper of Classic Race Bikes

September 29, 2009

Are you a racebike enthusiast? Happen to be planning a trip to the Nuerburgring in Germany?

erpeldingIf so, you may want to visit former motorcycle and auto dealer and racer Frithjor Erpelding, a man who claims to have the second largest private museum in Europe dedicated to race motorcycles. Located in the Eifel mountain hamlet of Jammelshofen, near the ‘Ring, the museum houses 200-some bikes and a half-dozen of his championship-winning race cars.

Among the units on display: AJS, Aprilia, Ariel, Bimota, BSA, CZ, Egli, Gilera, NSU, Koenig, Moto Parilla, Moto Guzzi, MV Agusta, Matchless, Maico, Triumph, Norton, Greeves, Jawa, Puch, Wanderer, Harris, BSS, Benelli, Laverda, Royal-Enfield, Harley-Davidson, Horex, Honda, Gilera, Kawasaki, Kreidler, Linto, Suzuki, Scott, Seley, Yamaha, Rickman, KTM, Ducati, Montessa, NSU, Vincent, Velocette and Zuendapp, etc.

I asked Erpelding which of the 200 units is his favorite. “The Norton,” he replied without pause. Erpelding has two Norton Manx. “The chairman of Cambridge University recently contacted me, asking if I would sell one of my Manx. I told him ‘No’. He offered Euro 100,000 and I declined. Then he offered Euro 200,000 and I again declined. Finally, I cut to the chase and told him I wouldn’t be selling the bike no matter what the price.”

MuseumBut, Erpelding is willing to sell certain units. He says he recently sold a Vincent to a collector in the United States for Euro 80,000. “He deposited the check in my bank account before even receiving the bike. I called and asked him why he trusted me, and he said, ‘I’ve heard you’re a trustworthy guy’.”

Erpelding is a fella who loves telling his stories. If you’re planning a visit, be sure to leave time to have beer at his Race Museum Bar. He’ll tell you about his run-ins with racer Agostini and Yamaha bosses; his thoughts on Triumph, MZ and KTM; his trips to Goodwood; and his days of racing Honda motorcycles and cars.

Check out Erpelding’s website, which features the full line-up of the museum’s bikes on display.

We Get Letters: A Note From Harley-Davidson South

September 23, 2009

There are million customer service stories in the naked city and here’s one of them from Steve Otton, the service director at Harley-Davidson South in Miami, Florida. Knowing that some of those stories are of the horror variety, I dig reading stuff like this.

We all have great customer stories, but recently the Service Department at Peterson’s Harley-Davidson South (in Miami) was contacted by Mr. Tim Olsen with a bit of a different request.

Mr. Olsen is the Chief Engineer on the NOAA Ship Nancy Foster. Tim rides a 2004 FLHTC-I which travels everywhere with him on board the ship. Tim e-mailed us indicating he wasnancy foster having a charging system problem (more…)


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